MIXING IT UP A BIT

Made a couple of moves yesterday to shake up the pitching staff.  Nothing earth-shattering.  Just a little strategy play to help the pitching numbers.  I had actually picked up Joe Wieland last week, cutting Alex Liddi who is doing nothing but riding pine in Seattle (two starts, eight ABs).  Well, Wieland got one start and bombed so he was one cut.  Brent Lillibridge was the other.  I really like him and think he could be a player, but new Sox manager Robin Ventura doesn’t want to play him for some reason (two starts, nine ABs).  He’s doing me nor the Sox any good sitting on the bench.  I’ll keep an eye on him though to see if he starts playing down the road.

Added were the Twins Brian Duensing and the Brewers Marco Estrada.  Here is the strategy play – both have SP eligibility even though they are pitching out of the pen for their respective teams.  This allows me to have two more arms in play each day.  I like this idea a lot as it will theoretically boost my counting stats while also helping my ratio categories.  Both guys are pitching well in the early going.  Duensing is a lefty who has had some success in the Twins rotation.  The fact that they seemed committed to keeping him in the bullpen to start this season despite some injuries could lead to a breakout for his numbers.  Estrada is yet another hurler out of the pen for the Brewers on the 66ers to go with K-Rod, Veras and Loe.  I'm thinking at least one of these guys will get into action on most days.

And a week two bullpen update - 13 innings, only two earned runs allowed (both by Francisco Rodriguez).  It's silly how following guys like Kameron Loe and Scott Downs is more exciting than Joey Votto and Ian Kinsler, but that's where I'm at right now.  Guess I know the stars are gonna put up their numbers, but the relief pitchers on this team are really the key to success right now.  As long as they keep pitching like they are, should start winning some weekly matchups.

WEEK ONE RECAP

Opening week is in the books, and the Fake 66ers go down 9-7 in a close matchup with division rival, the Hickory Crawdads.  This series could have swung either way.  It’s apparent from the boxscore (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/boxscorefull?leagueId=152232&teamId=11&scoringPeriodId=19&seasonId=2012&view=matchup&version=full) that pitching is gonna be an issue.  66ers won six of eight hitting categories but lost seven of eight pitching.  The pitching really didn’t seem to be that bad though so hoping to win a couple of the close categories that were lost to the Crawdads.

Upon closer examination, it’s the starting pitching that lost the series week one.  The bullpen of Robertson, Downs, Thornton, Reed, Veras, Rodriguez and Loe gave up just four runs in 28.33 innings.  That’s a 1.58 ERA.  And of the seven, only the Brewers trio gave up the runs.  With Tim Hudson set to return to the Braves rotation next week, and Andy Pettitte close behind for the Yankees, the rotation will be getting a big boost shortly.  Losing the first week sucks, but it could have been much worse.

One bright spot in the early going is the play of SS Zack Cozart.    I still contend this guy has a shot at Rookie-of-the-Year honors in the National League, and his play week one bears that out.  A .351 AVG, .995 OPS with a homer and five extra-base hits in all.  If he stays healthy, I’m expecting big things on top of that potent Reds lineup.  I was the last team to draft a SS and early indications are it was a good strategy.

Next up, the Savannah Sand Gnats, who won their first matchup 14-1-1.  Need that pitching to come around to contend in this one.

OFF-SEASON MOVES

Had three guy go on the DL before Opening Day (in the U.S., in the daytime).  Knew Tim Hudson was going to start the year there.  Though Allen Craig might.  And had no idea about Takashi Saito, but no big loss there.  He was my 40^th round pick.

Added Seattle prospect Alex Liddi to my bench.  He may not stay with the 66ers long.  He made the Mariners roster out of camp, but has yet to get into any of their first five games (three in the U.S.).  He has some power potential, but not if he’s riding the pine.  Would rather see him lighting up some PCL pitching than rotting in an MLB dugout.

Added Kevin Millwood to the rotation.  I kind of like this pickup, although he isn’t scheduled to pitch until Wednesday, April 12^th.  For the same reason’s I hate Safeco Field for the Mariner’s hitters, I love it for their pitchers.  I really think Millwood can put up some decent numbers for the M’s.  Time will tell but for now he slots into one of my SP slots.

Also added Kameron Loe.  This is more of a committee move as I already have K-Rod and Veras from the Milwaukee bullpen.  Figure I can get at least one of them into a game on a regular basis.  Loe isn’t anything to write home about, but he’s pretty solid.  He should provide a few holds, a pretty good WHIP while posting a good ERA.  Might keep him over Saito depending on how he fares the first couple weeks.

WE HAVE A TRADE!

Received a trade offer from PerryP, the GM of the Fort Wayne TinCaps.  Normally I would consider a first offer, try to find somebody on the other team that I want to target, then make a counter.  But not this time.  I felt the offer was more than fair and I quickly accepted it.  The 66ers sent 9^th round pick Jesus Montero to the TinCaps for 1B Ike Davis and CF Dexter Fowler.  Wasn’t really looking to move Montero, but the offer was just too good for me to pass up.  Although I think Montero will hit at the MLB level, I don’t like his home park at all.  Plus I’ve read of some attitude issues.  Still hard to part with him though.

But I like Davis, and he provides good depth at 1B. I’ll slot him into Montero’s UTIL spot for now. Fowler fulfills a need in the OF. Other than Lance Berkman, my OF is pretty much based on speculation to start the year. Fowler has the tools to really put up some numbers in several categories.

Basically, I traded my 9th round pick for his 12th and 19th rounders. Might have been able to upgrade from Fowler, but I’m rolling with him in Mile High and seeing how it goes. Hoping he can resemble Cameron Maybin (who, incidentally, went three picks ahead of Montero in the 9th round).

DRAFT RECAP

So I joined an “expert” league this year which consists of 16 teams with 16 different scoring categories.  Not to mention 40 man rosters with four DL spots.  It’s gonna take some knowledge to do well in this league, that’s for sure.  Draft was a live, snake format and the 66ers picked ninth.  Here’s a link to the draft results (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/draftrecap?leagueId=152232).  Below is a detailed analysis of my picks.

Round #1 – 9^th overall

Joey Votto, CIN 1B

I initially targeted Troy Tulowitski with the 9^th pick figuring he might slide to me.  He ended up going first overall, go figure.  Knew I would get a bonafide stud nonetheless, and Votto fits that bill for sure.  I know 1B is fairly deep, but this is a deep league.  Need a consistent producer with your top pick.  All Votto does is hit.  He seems like a lock for 100+ runs and rbi’s, 30+ homers and a .300 avg.  He also has sneaky speed.  And he plays in a great hitter’s park.  What’s not to like?

Round #2 – 24^th overall

Ian Kinsler, TEX 2B

Three 2B stand out to me and Kinsler is one of them (Cano, Pedroia).  Love the production from a middle infield position.  Probably have to live with his mediocre avg., but he makes up for it in all other categories.  Guy went 30/30 last year and in ’09.  I thought about Lincecum in this spot, but want to load up on offense early and target some solid pitching in the later rounds.

Round #3 – 41^st

Paul Konerko, CWS 1B

Not a sexy pick, and I already have Votto in the fold, but Konerko will slot into my 1B/3B slot.  He’s another guy who just rakes.  Good average, OBP, power.   Thought about Sabathia or Grienke but I’m still thinking that loading up on offense is the way to go early.  Also considered David Wright but he’s got too many questions.  He did go the pick right after me though.

Round #4 – 56^th
Alex Rodriguez, NYY 3B

I love me some A-Rod.  Might be a little early for him based on his injury history the past couple years, but if he can stay healthy, this is a steal.  I’m not expecting 40+ homers, but I think it’s reasonable to expect 25 with 100 rbi’s in the heart of the Yankees lineup.  At the 56^th pick, that’s good production.  The position players taken after him this round were Weiters, Phillips, McCann, Weeks and Victorino.  My money says A-Rod outperforms all of them at a scarce position.

Round #5 – 73^rd

Lance Berkman, STL 1B/RF

This is a flat out steal at pick 73.  I think the move to 1B will only help him.  I’ll take what he did last year when he had an OPS of .960.  Hell, I considered him two rounds ago when I picked Konerko.  I think they will put up similar numbers.

Round #6 – 88^th

Joe Mauer, MIN C

  
We have to start two catchers in this league which means 32 are in lineups everyday.   I had six catchers targeted before the draft (Napoli, Santana, McCann, Mauer, Posey, Weiters) and wanted to make sure I got one of them.  With four of them gone, better jump on one now.  I think Mauer could really bounce back this year.  Hoping so at least.  Even if his power is diminished, he should provide help in the average category at the very least.

Round #7 – 105^th

Buster Posey, SFG C

Well what do you know, Posey is still available.  I know both of my guys are coming off of season’s in which they were injured, but picking my two catchers back-to-back is gonna give me a big edge if they both produce up to expectations.  While I’m banking Posey’s numbers, other teams will be relying on the likes of Yorvit Torrealba and George Kotteras.  I like my guy better.  J

Round #8 – 120^th

Tommy Hanson, ATL SP

Time to address the rotation.  Surprised a little Hanson lasted this long.  Hell, Brandon Beachy was picked ahead of him???  He’s not a Verlander/Kershaw type, but he is the top hurler on a very good Braves team.  Could do worse.

Round #9 – 137^th

Jesus Montero, SEA UTIL

I was a little caught off guard when it came to this pick.  Was hoping for an OF or another SP, but nobody really caught my eye.  Went with Montero.  This could be a steal at this point.  We keep ten next year and he most certainly will be one of them.  When you compare him to the guys being drafted around him like Ryan Roberts, Melky Cabrera and Gaby Sanchez, it looks like a no-brainer.  Don’t like him hitting in Safeco, but it is what it is I guess.  When he qualifies at catcher I’ll be loaded at that position!

Round #10 – 152^nd

Corey Luebke, SDP SP/RP

I’m taking a little bit of a shot on this guy, but his peripherals are lights out.  Low WHIP, high K/9.  And he pitches in the best park for pitchers in the league.  Not gonna win 20 games with the Padres, but I’ll take double digits if he provides those good ratios.

Round #11 – 169^th

Kelly Johnson, TOR 2B

I love this pick.  He hits for average every-other -year.  Guess what?  This is his year.  He had terrible luck last season.  If he can get his average to .275, he’s gonna be a stud.  I’m thinking 25+ HRs with 20+ SBs.  And he’s gonna get pitches to hit in front of Jose Bautista, that’s for sure.  He’s one of my sleepers to put up big numbers this year.

Round #12 – 184^th

Tim Hudson, ATL SP

He’ll probably miss most if not all of April, but when he gets back he’s gonna be better than anybody else I could get at this point.  If he wasn’t injured, I’d say he would have gone five round earlier.  Figure I pair him up with Hanson for the top of my rotation.  If it works for the Braves, why can’t it work for the 66ers?

Round #13 – 201^st

Angel Pagan, SFG CF

Well, I’ve identified my weak spot, and that’s the OF position.  I’m gonna be forced to slot Berkman at RF, which if fine.  I actually like Pagan ok in CF.  He’s no Josh Hamilton, but for the 201^st pick, not bad.  He obviously has speed, and if he can return to his 2010 form, this is a steal.  If he hits, he’ll be valuable on top of that Giants lineup.

Round #14 – 216^th

Addison Reed, CWS RP

 
This league combines holds and saves into one category, so no need to target closers.  Having said that, this guy has a shot to be a good one if he finds himself in that role.  Regardless if he does or not, he’s young and has a live arm and should provide excellent peripheral stats.

Round #15 – 233^rd

Allen Craig, STL LF

This guy could be the key to my entire draft.  My OF is a little suspect so far, and Craig is set to miss a little time in early April, but if he hits anywhere close to how he hit last fall, he will be a major contributor for my team.  I absolutely love him and just hope he can get healthy and start raking!

Round #16 – 248^th 

David Robertson, NYY RP

I feel like I’m starting to kill it in these last few rounds.  Robertson is not only one of the best setup guys in the game, he’s set to take over for Mariano Rivera next season.  Possible sleeper for a keeper spot in the 16^th round.  While other teams are focused on saves and taking guys like Grant Balfour and Joe Nathan, I’ll pile up the holds and get much better ratios.  Hell yeah!

Round #17 – 265^th

Matt Thornton, CWS RP

He may be the closer.  I almost hope he isn’t.  He’s lights out in the 8^th inning.  Even in a “bad” year last season, his ERA was 3.30 and he struck out 9.5 per nine. 

Round #18 – 280^th

Zack Cozart, CIN SS

I am killing these teen rounds.  I’ve ignored SS up to this point with this guy in mind.  Time to pull the trigger.  He’s a rookie, but he can hit and he only has Paul Janish to worry about.  I love his ballpark.  Could be a surprise ROY candidate.  Gonna target Taylor Pastornicky in a round or two as a rookie SS duo.

Round #19 – 297^th
Mark Buehrle, MIA SP

 

Really surprised he’s still available.  I don’t have any real stud pitchers, but my staff will have some solid options.  All this guy does is go to the hill every fifth day and accumulate over 200 innings with an ERA in the 3s.  I really like his move to the NL, which should help, and I think the Marlins could be pretty good which could get him wins in the teens.  That’s good production at pick 297 for sure.

Round #20 – 312^th
Taylor Pastornicky, ATL SS

 
Got to love it when a plan falls into place.  This guy isn’t Troy Tulowitski by any means, but I think he has some speed and he’ll be in a good lineup.  As insurance for Cozart, I could do worse.  Considering the other SS available were Brendan Ryan and Eduardo Nunez, I got him just in time.  Just banking on one of my two rookies to produce. 

Round #21 – 329^th
Francisco Rodriguez, MIL RP

I’m loving my bullpen.  I think K-Rod has a shot to lead the league in holds this season.  He obviously claims the closer job if Axford goes down.  Milwaukee lost Fielder but they should still win games.  Bullpen is shaping up as a team strength.

Round #22 – 344^th
Nolan Reimold, BAL LF

If my bullpen is a strength, then my OF is a weakness.  I’m really lucky a guy like Reimold was still available this late.  I know the O’s like him, and he should bat leadoff for them.  He’s got good OBP potential, and could conceivably go 20/20 if things go right. 

Round #23 – 361^st
Jon Jay, STL CF/RF

No love for Jon Jay?  He may not be sexy, but he can hit.  At least for average.  And last time I checked, that’s one of our scoring categories.  Yeah, he doesn’t hit for power, but the Cards are talking of running more and he could stand to benefit.  If he can provide some SBs, he’s a great value at this point.  Hell, even without them, he’s a great value here.  Plus, he provides some depth at two OF spots and teams with Craig to ensure a starting OF for the Cards in my lineup.

Round #24 – 376^th
Roy Oswalt, FA SP

This pick kinda snuck up on me.  Nobody was really appealing, so I decided to roll the dice on Oswalt.  He may not pitch till July, but if he does sign he should be better than anybody else I can get at this point.  We have deep benches so might as well load it up with guys who can produce.  I’d much rather have a guy like Oswalt than a back end rotation guy.  Those are my options at this point.

Round #25 – 393^rd
Carlos Zambrano, MIA SP

I hate to do it, but I’m rolling with Big-Z.  This guy has the tools.  Hoping his move to Miami will help his head.  I’m also hoping the new Marlins ballpark is a pitchers park as I have two of their starters now.

Round #26 – 408^th
Jerrod Parker, OAK SP

 
It’s that point in the draft where I’m gonna target some prospects.  We get to keep five next season if they don’t qualify this year.  Parker actually may very well end up in the A’s rotation.  Gonna try to get Brad Peacock in the next round to lock up the top two pitching prospects for Oakland.

Round #27 – 425^th
Brad Peacock, OAK SP
Another plan works out.  Yay.  I’m figuring between Peacock and Parker, I got one guy who will produce in 2012.  The other I can hold onto as one of my prospects for next year.  And it’s not inconceivable that both end up in the rotation for the A’s this year.

Round #28 – 440^th
Scott Downs, ANA RP

There is not a more productive setup man in baseball the past few years.  He has more holds than anybody the past five years.  His ERA over that span is 2.12.  His ratios are more than helpful.  My bullpen strength just got stronger!

Round #29 – 457^th
Carl Pavano, MIN SP

I’ve got to pick his spots, but he’s a #1 and it’s round 29.  Hard to pass up at this point.  His ERA last year at Target Field was 3.01.  I can make him useful.

Round #30 – 472^nd
Andy Pettitte, NYY SP

Sure, he retired and missed 2011.  So what.  Sure, he’s sure to miss the first month of the season.  So what.  In the 30^th round, why not take a shot?  I’ll take 20 starts from this guy on that team.  Could easily get double-digit wins from this guy.

Round #31 – 489^th

Ryan Sweeney, BOS LF/CF/RF

Sweeney provides backup at all three OF positions.  He’s slated to play RF for the BoSox, and he can hit for average.  Not looking for a whole lot at this point.

Round #32 – 504^th
Freddy Galvis, PHI SS

 
Galvis has the 2B job in Philly until Chase Utley returns from injury.  And he was mentioned as the replacement for Jimmy Rollins if he had left via free agency over the winter.  Not sure if he can hit much, but he provided middle IF depth and he has some speed.

Round #33 – 521^st
Gerritt Cole, PIT SP
Time for some prospects, and why not the #1 overall pick from last year’s MLB entry draft?  He will almost assuredly be one of my five prospect keepers next year.

Round #34 – 536^th
Jurickson Profar, TEX SS
Top rated middle IF prospect in baseball.  Another keeper next year.

Round #35 – 553^rd
Jose Veras, MIL RP

Couldn’t really decide on anybody, so went with Veras to team with K-Rod from the Brewers pen.  I like his K potential.  And he should get a fair amount of holds.

Round #36 – 568^th  
Tyler Skaggs, ARZ SP
Just going with my top rated prospect at this point.  He might crack the D-Backs rotation this year.  If not, he slots as one of my prospect keepers.

Round #37 – 585^th   

Tommy Hunter, BAL SP/RP

I’m almost required to draft Tommy since I know him personally.  I like his chances this year.  He slots in as the #2 guy in Baltimore.  He should log innings.  Just hope he can stay healthy.

Round #38 – 600^th  
Takashi Saito, ARZ RP

Sure he’s 42 and he doesn’t log a ton of innings, but he doesn’t allow baserunners or runs at all for that matter.  Just another strong option on the bullpen.

Round #39 – 617^th  
Brent Lillibridge, CWS 1B/RF

It’s hard to get overly excited about the 617^th selection, but I love this pick.  This guy had 13 HRs in only 216 ABs last year.  He currently supplies depth at two positions, and if the word out of Chicago is true, he’ll qualify for 3B and SS as well at some point this season.  This guy just needs a chance to play.

Round #40 – 632^nd
Marco Estrada, MIL RP

I wanted Kameron Loe from the Milwaukee pen but he went the pick directly before me, so I panicked and took Estrada.  I now have three relievers from the same staff.  A couple of them have to do well, don’t they?

Overall, this draft went pretty damn well for me.  Starting pitching is a bit of a weakness, but I think I can get by with the guys I got and a little help from the waiver wire.  If one of Hudson, Pettitte or Oswalt can return to form, my staff looks a little better.  Also need one of my rookie SS to produce.  Otherwise the lineup is pretty strong.  Looking forward to seeing how things play out this year.